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📺 Useful Vids 📺
One Reason to Buy 👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KuYFOwRW80
Bitcoin Adoption 👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6xIEYlAK6U
Bitcoin Institutions 👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KkLtvxlmeg
Bitcoin Corporates 👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYd1khX3loA
– TIMESTAMPS –
1:54 How To Value Bitcoin
3:48 Stock to Flow
7:34 Realized Capitalisation
9:42 Comparable Analysis
12:33 Hodl Waves & Output Age
19:51 Final Thoughts
⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️
► Puell Multiple: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/puell-multiple/
► Glassnode Charts: https://glassnode.com/
► Gold Data: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/knowledge/above-ground-stocks
► Stock to Flow: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
► Valuing Bitcoin: https://www.lopp.web/pdf/theses/Grayscale-Valuing-Bitcoin.pdf
📝 Valuing in Difficult 📝
Bitcoin doesn’t match into many of the monetary fashions that we have a tendency to make use of in conventional finance.
When you’re looking at Stocks or Bonds, these are often thought-about to have “Value” becuase they both offer you a stream of earnings or they provide you possession of an asset that generates earnings.
Unlike uncooked commodities, there isn’t any use finish use case for Bitcoin. Oil is used for energy. Gold can be utilized for Jewelerry.
So, in terms of valuing Bitcoin we have now to make use of bespoke fashions that keep in mind historic costs, onchain knowledge, community results, shortage, provide and demand.
📈 Stock-to-Flow 📈
This was the mannequin that was developed by a well-known analyst known as PlanB. Essentially, it’s a measure of the provision of a selected useful resource relative to the speed of provide development. It’s a ratio of the excellent “inventory” to the circulation of that useful resource.
This mannequin has beforehand been used to worth different scarce assets equivalent to treasured metals (gold, silver and many others).
Gold at present has a S2F ratio of 65 whereas Bitcoin has a ratio of 56. However, Bitcoin’s is all the time growing because it goes by way of these halving occasions.
PlanB discovered a very robust statistical relationship right here and has extrapolated it out into the long run. Using the mannequin, right here you might have what the theoretically value of Bitcoin ought to be primarily based on the S2F.
And right here we have now the precise value of Bitcoin overlayed on prime of it. As you’ll be able to see, it has been monitoring it fairly rattling effectively. We might be seeing a bitcoin value of 100k by as early as May.
📈 Relized Capitalisation 📈
It is a measure of the combination price foundation of all of the Bitcoin that has ever been moved.
It is calculated by taking the worth of every Bitcoin at its final on-chain motion. Those cash that final moved again in 2012 could have a lot much less of an affect available on the market cap than people who moved yesterday.
The purpose of this metric is to attempt to de-emphasize the affect that these older cash could have available on the market cap.
📈 Spent Output & Hodl Waves 📈
What Spent Output reveals is the proportion of all spent output that have been created inside a selected age band. Each of the traces over right here signify the proportion of spent outputs that have been created within the time bands highlighted.
It is a sign of how a lot the long term holders are holding their cash and whether or not most of these cash which might be at present being moved are newer entrants into the market.
Another hodl metric that you just guys might like from Glassnode is what they’ve aptly named their “Hodl waves”. These mainly signify the proportion of sure provide that’s held by UTXO’s with completely different life spans.
🐋 Whale Addresses 🐋
One of probably the most dependable indicators out there may be simply to look at the variety of wallets which have greater than 1,000 Bitcoin in them.
If there are extra wallets with 1k BTC in them it can present that these whales have been accumulating their cash and therefore they’ve a view that Bitcoin may have worth at these ranges.
The variety of wallets with 1k BTC in them has been on a gradual incline over the previous 12 months. This might have taken a dip not too long ago however that is solely as a result of these whales have been transferring their cash to a custody resolution of some sort.
📜 Disclaimer 📜
The data contained herein is for informational functions solely. Nothing herein shall be construed to be monetary authorized or tax recommendation. The content material of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who isn’t a licensed monetary advisor or registered funding advisor. Trading Forex, cryptocurrencies and CFDs poses appreciable threat of loss. The speaker doesn’t assure any specific final result.
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